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Foggy outlookHow the twists and turns of the trade war are hurting growth

   The IMF downgrades its forecasts for the global economy. Again
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   The IMF’s economists have valiantly tried to quantify the damage to the
   world economy from the trade war if Mr Trump’s putative deal falls
   apart. The direct impact is surprisingly modest. The tariffs already in
   place and in the pipeline could reduce America’s GDP by just over 0.2%
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   apart. The direct impact is surprisingly modest. The tariffs already in
   place and in the pipeline could reduce America’s GDP by just over 0.2%
   next year, compared with a world in which the trade war had never
   started (see chart). More harmful are indirect effects: weaker business
   confidence, productivity and risk-appetite on financial markets. These
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   These are small percentages—but of vast economies. If the IMF is right,
   an unresolved trade war could cost America roughly $125bn of forgone
   output next year alone. The cost to China could exceed $300bn (at
   market exchange rates). Big numbers indeed. â–