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To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions (BUTTON) OK Project Syndicate - Back to home Project Syndicate Logo * Magazine * Log in * (BUTTON) Search * (BUTTON) Menu * Latest * Columnists * (BUTTON) Sections + Economics + Politics + Development + Sustainability + Culture + Innovation * (BUTTON) Topics + PS 25 + Trade Wars + Media + Value in the Age of AI + Africa + View all * On Point * Big Picture * (BUTTON) Multimedia + Videos + Podcasts (BUTTON) zhang38_WinMcNameeGettyImages_trumppointingatcamera Win McNamee/Getty Images * (BUTTON) Comments 5 * (BUTTON) Add to Bookmarks (BUTTON) Chinese * Arabic * English * Russian * Spanish * Facebook * Twitter * Whatsapp 特朗普在贸易战上对中国的失算 Jun 3, 2019 Zhang Jun 上海—在中美贸易谈判即将取得阶段性成果之际突然出现逆转，当然对任何人都不是好消息。美国过于急于求成，对中国要价超出现有底线，或是中国无法接受的 原因。作为要挟，美国动用国家力量并通过给盟友施压联合对华为等中国高科技企业进行技术封锁，认为这样可以绑架中国。这大概是个失算。30年前这样做对 中国会是致命的，但今天中国早已融入全球产业链之中，对中国的要挟除了会扰乱全球生产链的格局，给全球经济和金融市场的未来蒙上阴影之外，大概也还会为 华为和中国现有半导体科技企业联手加强合作提供更紧迫机会。 到目前为止，中国对美国做法还是相对克制。众所周知，在中美贸易战中，即便中国在可施加关税的美国对华出口的规模上相对更小，但中国并非束手无策。事实 上，除了可以在美国农产品、商用飞机等领域予以直接报复之外，中国还有更多的杀手锏。不过，中国不会感情用事地动用这些其它手段还击美国。这对全球市场 是会更加不幸。中国已经高度融入全球经济和全球产业链中，中国拥有大量的外资企业包括美国企业，在一些环节中国还是全球大多数国家参与其中的中间品供应 商的最大市场和终端产品的制造商。中国也是美国政府国债的最大债权人。另外，中国还拥有全球最为完备和极其发达的中高端制造和配套能力。出于对全球经济 和金融稳定的考虑，中国的克制是有道理的。 但特朗普方面一直对中国存在误判。发动针对中国的贸易战和不断提高的要价，除了临近的政治竞选的考虑---据说这就是主要原因，他的同僚非常自信地认为 中国在贸易战中后退的余地不大，中国经济有出现硬着陆的极大的概率。事实上，中国政策可以调整的空间远大于美国，并且能够调整的领域不在少数，这包括可 以动用储备、扩大货币供给、加强资本流动管理以及允许更加灵活的汇率政策，并且如被逼无奈中国应该会这么做以减轻经济受到美国贸易战的冲击。以汇率而言 ，如果中国容许人民币大幅度贬值，势将带动多国货币的竞争性贬值，直接冲击美元和国际货币体系的稳定。尽管最近人民币确实对美元已有贬值压力，但中国央 行最近强调希望保持汇率稳定，这符合长远利益。 We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate. To continue reading, subscribe now. Subscribe Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine. Already have an account or want to create one to read two commentaries for free? Log in Zhang Jun Zhang Jun Writing for PS since 2005 41 Commentaries (BUTTON) Follow Zhang Jun is Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank. (prev) Previous (BUTTON) Cancel (next) Next (BUTTON) Close new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted. (BUTTON) Refresh? (BUTTON) Close 0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 in all 4 Comments on this article Before posting a comment, please confirm your account. To receive another confirmation email, please click here. * Alex Aslanidis Jun 19, 2019 (BUTTON) Show paragraph Will you "professional commentators" stop repeating this mantra that China will dump it's US Treasury debt holdings, and how that constitutes a weapon? Guess what will happen if China does that. Nothing at all. US banks and the FED will buy these holdings and life will go on as usual. (BUTTON) Reply A new reply to this comment has been posted. (BUTTON) Load? * Alex Aslanidis Jun 19, 2019 Oh, so global supply chains can't go away, eh? Well, guess what, once upon a time global supply chains didn't exist. Supply chains were far more local. Then local supply chains went away (causing severe harm to local producers), and were replaced by global supply chains. What is it exactly that stops the reverse from happening? Nothing much at all. (BUTTON) Reply A new reply to this comment has been posted. (BUTTON) Load? * V RAVICHANDRAN Jun 9, 2019 Reading the article one gets an impression that America is to be blamed more than China. The following points may be noted: ➡️ For cost reduction, most of the manufacturing/outsourcing moved away from US. India has also been a beneficiary of such decisions but it had also brought problems in the form of cultural changes. If the tariffs add to the cost, decisions may be reversed and they may go back to where they came from in the long run. ➡️ Dependence on exports for wealth creation generates its own problems and may result in Asian crisis (of 1990s) like situation. This may spell negative for the domestic industries that might have created huge capacities based on exports potential. Finding alternative avenues for such huge capacities may take longer time that may not be sustainable. ➡️ China has a huge population which may have to be employed. ➡️ Technology has developed in US through capital market mechanism but that may not be the case with China though the later is also credited with its own developments. ➡️China can consider investments for supplementing Capital instead of using its dollar reserves for loans that makes countries indebted. With Regards, V.Ravichandran. (BUTTON) Reply A new reply to this comment has been posted. (BUTTON) Load? * Robert Wolff Jun 3, 2019 "US deviations from free-market orthodoxy and abuses of state power could shake America’s own economic foundations and threaten its institutions." This is already occurring, as the US reassesses its attitude not only towards China, but towards the Middle East and South America where former US ideals of Humanitarianism and Freedom, which the US has fought for since the end of WWII, are now unenforceable even by US military standards. So the reality is that rather than accepting Christian ideals, America is now accepting the brutal reality that is no longer the world ideological leader and will likely itself have to change its social idealism to accommodate a more autocratic/competitive relationship with the rest of the world. Personally, my interpretation of Trump's policies to save the future US economy from financial disaster, via reducing trade deficits and consequently unacceptable and unsustainable explosion of US debt, was first to try tariffs. If the Chinese did not accept terms that would preclude America's rapid fall in financial solvency, which they have not, then the multidimensional war with China would become more and more hostile until US multinational CEO's consider the risk of their Chinese operations beyond the pale and repatriate their operations to America and employ American workers. That is the whole purpose of Trump's policies anyway. Consider American's know China is rising not just economically but politically and militarily, and that to delay US confrontation with China into the future would seriously impact any US success in limiting damage to America and Americans of the future. Consequently, I expect the American policies to become tougher, more autocratic and less humanitarian in the ensuing battles, surprisingly giving up many of the social ideals that have motivated US actions since the end of its successes in WWII. (BUTTON) Reply A new reply to this comment has been posted. (BUTTON) Load? 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