Skip to main content PDF icon Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add Paper to My Library Share: * * * * Permalink Using the URL or DOI link below will ensure access to this page indefinitely https://ssrn.com/abs Copy URL https://dx.doi.org/1 Copy URL 中美贸易战经济影响的定量分析：基于全球CGE模型应用 (Quantifying the Economic Effect of the US-China Trade War: A CGE Analysis ） 11 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2019 Last revised: 9 Jul 2019 See all articles by Yun Wen Yun Wen Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Simon Fraser University (SFU) Tao Zhang Partner/General Manager Date Written: October 20, 2018 Abstract Chinese Abstract: 本文运用全球可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）分析中美贸易战对两国经济以及全球贸易产生的影响。基于中美贸易战政策背景，本文对贸易战不同阶段的政策采取 短期、长期闭合模拟。模拟结果表明，中美贸易战对两国宏观经济、行业部门带来不同程度冲击；全球大部分国家经济福利受损，但由于贸易转移现象也会使部分 国家受益。在对宏观经济指标进行分析外，本次研究最重要的贡献在于构建相关的全球CGE模型行业数据库以及量化关税冲击，从微观角度分析贸易战对我国行 业部门的影响。研究中采用的数据库建构、政策模拟方法对相关议题的研究提供了更为全面的实证研究方法，也为贸易政策提供可量化数据支持。 English Abstract: This paper uses the global computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the economic effect of the US-China trade war. Based on the policy background of the trade war, this paper has simulations on the different stages of the trade war by setting four simulation scenarios. The result indicates that both China and the US will be negatively impacted on their macroeconomics and industrial sectors by the tit-for-tat trade conflicts. Most countries’ economic welfare will be impaired, but some countries such as Canada and Mexico will benefit from the US-China trade war to some extent because of trade transfers. In addition to the analysis of macroeconomics, one of the significant contributions of this study lies in the construction of global CGE database that fits in the policy simulation. Meanwhile, it also provides an analysis of the impact on China’s industrial sectors from a microeconomic perspective. The methodology combining the construction of the database and the quantitative methods of setting policy “shocks” enriches relevant policy simulation studies, and provides more quantifying evidence for the research of international trade policy. Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese. Keywords: CGE, the US-China Trade War, Closure, Trade Transfer Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation Wen, Yun and Zhang, Tao, 中美贸易战经济影响的定量分析：基于全球CGE模型应用 (Quantifying the Economic Effect of the US-China Trade War: A CGE Analysis ） (October 20, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3393938 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3393938 Yun Wen (Contact Author) Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email ) #1, 10318 Whalley Blvd surrey, BC - British Columbia V3T4H4 Canada Simon Fraser University (SFU) ( email ) 8888 University Drive Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6 Canada Tao Zhang Partner/General Manager ( email ) 16167 Glenbrooks Place surrey, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3 Canada HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com PDF icon Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Register to save articles to your library Register Paper statistics Downloads 265 Abstract Views 1,082 rank 118,367 5 References PlumX Metrics Related eJournals * Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal Follow Econometrics: Mathematical Methods & Programming eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 474 PAPERS 6,276 * Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Follow Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 467 PAPERS 6,208 * International Trade eJournal Follow International Trade eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 435 PAPERS 26,087 * International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal Follow International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 46 PAPERS 8,100 This Journal is curated by: Kenneth Scheve at Stanford University * Conflict Studies: Effects of Conflict eJournal Follow Conflict Studies: Effects of Conflict eJournal Subscribe to this fee journal for more curated articles on this topic FOLLOWERS 43 PAPERS 1,464 This Journal is curated by: Kelly M. 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