Download This Paper中美贸易战经济影响的定量分析：基于全球CGE模型应用 (Quantifying the Economic Effect of the US-China Trade War: A CGE Analysis ）
11 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2019 Last revised: 9 Jul 2019
Date Written: October 20, 2018
Abstract
Chinese Abstract: 本文运用全球可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）分析中美贸易战对两国经济以及全球贸易产生的影响。基于中美贸易战政策背景，本文对贸易战不同阶段的政策采取短期、长期闭合模拟。模拟结果表明，中美贸易战对两国宏观经济、行业部门带来不同程度冲击；全球大部分国家经济福利受损，但由于贸易转移现象也会使部分国家受益。在对宏观经济指标进行分析外，本次研究最重要的贡献在于构建相关的全球CGE模型行业数据库以及量化关税冲击，从微观角度分析贸易战对我国行业部门的影响。研究中采用的数据库建构、政策模拟方法对相关议题的研究提供了更为全面的实证研究方法，也为贸易政策提供可量化数据支持。
English Abstract: This paper uses the global computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the economic effect of the US-China trade war. Based on the policy background of the trade war, this paper has simulations on the different stages of the trade war by setting four simulation scenarios. The result indicates that both China and the US will be negatively impacted on their macroeconomics and industrial sectors by the tit-for-tat trade conflicts. Most countries’ economic welfare will be impaired, but some countries such as Canada and Mexico will benefit from the US-China trade war to some extent because of trade transfers. In addition to the analysis of macroeconomics, one of the significant contributions of this study lies in the construction of global CGE database that fits in the policy simulation. Meanwhile, it also provides an analysis of the impact on China’s industrial sectors from a microeconomic perspective. The methodology combining the construction of the database and the quantitative methods of setting policy “shocks” enriches relevant policy simulation studies, and provides more quantifying evidence for the research of international trade policy.
Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.
Keywords: CGE, the US-China Trade War, Closure, Trade Transfer
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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